177
FXUS62 KMFL 300640
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
240 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

 - Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts will occur again today with
   peak heat index values ranging between 105 and 110 degrees
   across most areas.

 - Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase area wide
   heading into the middle of the week as a frontal boundary
   stalls out to the north.

 - A return to more of a typical summertime pattern is anticipated
   this weekend as high pressure builds in from the western
   Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

A large and expansive ridge will remain centered off to the north
across the Southeastern portion of the country as well as the Mid-
Atlantic States today and this ridge will continue to slowly build
eastward on Wednesday. At the same time, a weakness will develop
along the southeastern side of the ridge over the western Atlantic
as well as the Northern Florida and Georgia coastline. This will
allow for weak vorticity impulses to sneak under the ridge and
into Northern and Central Florida today, and then eventually
closer to South Florida heading into Wednesday. At the surface,
high pressure will begin to weaken as a frontal boundary pushes
into Northern and Central Florida today before eventually stalling
out on Wednesday across Central Florida. Out ahead of this front,
winds will remain rather light and sea breeze driven each day.
The biggest change in the weather pattern across South Florida
will be that deep layer moisture advection will be taking place
out ahead of the front as the Saharan Dust Layer gradually thins
out today and then even more so on Wednesday. This will gradually
cause PWATs to rise throughout today and Wednesday, generally
ranging from 1.7 to around 2.0 inches this afternoon, and then up
to 2.1 to 2.3 inches on Wednesday as the frontal boundary pushes
closer to the region.

With deep layer moisture increasing across the area, convection
chances will also gradually increase today, and even more so on
Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to be
mainly sea breeze driven, however, the weakening frontal boundary
to the north could provide an extra source of lift heading into
Wednesday. While the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms
looks to remain over the interior and Southwest Florida this
afternoon, coverage looks to increase area wide on Wednesday as
the frontal boundary gets closer to the region. As the steering
flow will remain light through the middle of the week, convection
will be slow moving and will be capable of producing heavy downpours
with high rainfall rates. This could create the potential for
localized flooding especially over portions of the metro areas as
well as the poor drainage areas.

Heat will continue to be a concern for today and Wednesday as peak
heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 across
most areas. This type of heat will create a moderate to major
HeatRisk especially across the east coast metro areas as well as
portions of Southwest Florida which will impact anyone without
adequate cooling and proper hydration. While these conditions
will be close to Heat Advisory criteria, probabilities remain on
the lower side that the heat index will stay at these values for
an extended period of time. Therefore, we will continue to monitor
trends as the morning progresses.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Heading into Thursday and Friday, the strong mid level ridge slowly
pushes eastward and centers over the Mid-Atlantic States as well as
the Carolinas by Friday. A weakness in this ridge remains in
place on the southern side as another mid level shortwave impulse
tries to push in from the Atlantic into Northern Florida and
Southeastern Georgia. At the surface, what is left of the stalled
out frontal boundary over Central Florida basically washes out,
however, deep layer moisture will continue to pool over South
Florida on Thursday. This will allow for the higher end chances of
slow moving showers and thunderstorms to remain in place
throughout Thursday. Multiple rounds of heavy downpours could lead
to localized flooding especially over the metro areas once again
on Thursday afternoon. As the end of the week approaches, the
pattern will gradually start to shift back to more of a typical
summertime pattern as surface high pressure in the western
Atlantic begins to shift back towards South Florida. As the high
builds back in from the western Atlantic, this will allow for the
synoptic wind flow to gradually increase out of the southeast
especially heading into Friday. This will also allow for the east
coast sea breeze to push further inland, and focus afternoon
convection over the interior and west coast during this time
frame. Heat will continue to be a concern on both Thursday and
Friday as well with high temperatures rising into the lower 90s.
Peak heat index values will still range between 105 and 110 each
day during this time frame.

Moving into the upcoming weekend, mid level ridging will gradually
center over the western Atlantic and the western periphery of
that ridge will build into South Florida as the weekend
progresses. At the surface, South Florida will remain on the
western side of an area of high pressure centered in the western
Atlantic during this time frame. This will allow for a light to
moderate southeasterly synoptic wind flow to set up across the
region. The sea breezes will be the main driver of convective
initiation each day and the highest chances of showers and storms
will focus over the interior and west coast each afternoon where
the sea breezes and other mesoscale boundaries collide. High
temperatures over the upcoming weekend will generally rise into
the lower 90s across most of the region. Peak heat index values
will generally range from 103 to 108 on both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Light winds early this morning will increase out of the ESE after
16z and will remain around 10 kts through the afternoon.
Scattered showers and storms will develop near the east coast
terminals during the mid afternoon before pushing towards the
interior and west coast. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the
WNW after 17z. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible at KAPF
during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Across the Atlantic waters, winds will remain rather gentle and
variable through the middle of the week. Across the Gulf waters, a
gentle to moderate northwesterly breeze will develop this afternoon
before shifting and becoming east northeasterly tonight. Seas across
the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through
the middle of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop across the local waters each day through the rest of the
week. However, showers and storms may become more numerous towards
the middle of the week as a frontal boundary stalls to the north of
the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  79  92  78 /  30  10  80  50
West Kendall     95  76  93  75 /  40  20  80  50
Opa-Locka        96  79  93  78 /  30  20  80  40
Homestead        94  78  92  78 /  30  20  70  40
Fort Lauderdale  93  79  91  79 /  20  20  70  40
N Ft Lauderdale  93  79  91  78 /  30  20  70  40
Pembroke Pines   97  80  95  80 /  30  20  70  40
West Palm Beach  93  78  91  78 /  30  20  60  30
Boca Raton       92  79  90  78 /  30  20  60  40
Naples           93  77  92  77 /  40  30  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC