869
FXUS62 KJAX 300711
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
311 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hot Today with Peak Heat Index Values 103 to 107 degrees

- Isolated Strong Storm I-75 Corridor This Afternoon

- Daily Mainly Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Tue -Thu:
 Mainly Inland Northeast Florida (between HWY 301 & I-75). Fri
Weekend: Increasing chances including Southeast GA

- Moderate Rip Current Risk SE GA & NE FL Beaches Today

- Minor River Flooding for Satilla River

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Isolated strong storm potential I-75 corridor this afternoon

A "backdoor" cool front currently over the SE GA waters will
continue to shift south today as surface high pressure wedges
southward down the southeastern seaboard developing a surge of NE
winds in the wake of the front. This flow change will allow the
Atlantic sea breeze to become dominant shifting well inland by the
afternoon hours. Isolated showers and storms develop along the sea
breezes in the late morning to early afternoon hours, increasing in
coverage as boundaries interact late afternoon. Subsidence from
lingering strong ridging aloft and slightly drier air will limit
convective coverage in SE GA today. The highest rain chances will
focus along and west of the I-75 corridor deeper moisture combines
with the sea breeze merger. An isolated strong storm will also be
possible this afternoon along mergers with any additional lift
provided by the passing frontal zone in north-central FL. Convection
will shift into the Gulf this evening with only a few spotty showers
lingering in its wake. In NE flow, highs will range from the upper
80s along the coast to the mid 90s further inland. Slightly lower
heat indices today expecting to remain just below criteria in the
100-107 F range. Above seasonable overnight lows continue in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy East Winds & Elevated Rip Current Risk
- Inland Strong Afternoon & Evening Storms

A drier airmass will remain in place on Wednesday, particularly
along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor, supporting mostly dry
conditions across southeast Georgia and much of northern northeast
Florida. The best chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will be confined to inland north-central Florida,
where deeper moisture lingers. An easterly onshore flow will
continue, with northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph and occasional gusts
up to 25 mph, especially near the coast. High temperatures will
range from around 90 degrees at the beaches to the mid and upper 90s
inland. Despite the hot temperatures, lower dewpoints mixing into
the lower 70s and even the upper 60s across portions of southeast
Georgia during the afternoon will keep peak heat index values
generally between 100 and 105 degrees, remaining below local Heat
Advisory criteria. Overnight lows will settle into the middle 70s.

Thursday: A broad upper-level trough approaching Florida from the
east, combined with persistent mid-level ridging anchored north and
northeast of the region, will maintain an easterly steering flow and
a dominant Atlantic sea breeze. While moisture will gradually
increase across northeast Florida, overall shower and thunderstorm
coverage is expected to remain lower than typical, with rain chances
generally 2040 percent south of State Road 16. Isolated showers may
develop near the northeast Florida coast during the morning before
activity shifts inland during the afternoon and evening, primarily
across inland northeast Florida south of State Road 16. Southeast
Georgia will remain under the greater influence of the ridge,
resulting in warmer and drier conditions with little to no rainfall
expected. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s along the coast
and the mid to upper 90s inland, with peak heat index values
climbing into the upper 90s to around 102 degrees across northeast
Florida, remaining just below local Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Higher Rain Chances Return for Northeast FL Friday
- Scattered to Numerous Showers and Storms this coming weekend
- Building Heat for Southeast GA

On Friday, a low level trough will bisect the CWA from Trenton to
Saint Simons to enhance moisture and shower and thunderstorm
coverage across northeast Florida while southeast Georgia remains on
the northern fringe of the deeper moisture beneath a strong ridge.
Easterly steering flow will persist, with convection becoming more
numerous across northeast Florida and less tied to the traditional
sea breeze pattern. Southeast Georgia will experience warmer
temperatures and comparatively lower rain chances. Heat index values
across portions of northeast Florida will be in 98 to 106 degree
range.

During the Independence Day weekend, the upper-level trough is
forecast to drift farther west while subtropical ridging rebuilds
offshore of the Southeast coast. As a result, low-level winds will
gradually veer from south-southeasterly to south-southwesterly,
allowing deeper tropical moisture to expand northward across both
northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. This pattern will support
increasing daily coverage of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms across the entire forecast area.

For Independence Day, current indications favor the highest
thunderstorm coverage developing across northeast Florida during the
afternoon before shifting inland during the evening. Weak steering
currents may result in slow-moving storms capable of producing
prolonged periods of heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and
localized flooding where storms persist. Temperatures will trend
warmer through the holiday weekend, with highs climbing into the
middle and upper 90s. Daily peak heat index values will generally
range from 105 to 110 degrees, approaching or exceeding local Heat
Advisory criteria, particularly across northeast Florida.

By Monday, southwesterly flow pattern continues with abundant
moisture, and scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms across both southeast Georgia and northeast
Florida. High temperatures will remain in the mid-90s, with heat
index values once again reaching 105 to 110 degrees, maintaining the
potential for Heat Advisories.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Light rain will linger over CRG for the next hour. Otherwise mainly
VFR conds with mid/high convective debris clouds and light and
variable winds expected through sunrise and only patchy MVFR fog
possible at VQQ from 08-11Z. ENE winds quickly increase after 12Z
pushing the Atlantic sea breeze well inland and to GNV by 18Z. Winds
will be sustained about 10-15 kts with gusts 15-20 kts. Highest
winds will be along the coast. With the Atlantic sea breeze shifting
in early, chances for showers and storms will be confined mainly to
VQQ and GNV. Have TEMPOs in from 17-22Z for breezy winds and lower
CIGs/VSBYs for VQQ/GNV.

&&

.MARINE...

A backdoor front will push into the southeast Georgia waters this
morning and shift south of the northeast Florida waters later this
afternoon. A surge of northeasterly winds develop in the wake of the
front and continues into Wednesday. The onshore flow will keep
thunderstorm activity mainly on land through the middle of the week.
The front lifts back northward into the area as remnant inverted
trough on Thursday resulting in an increase in rain and storm
chances. As surface high pressure builds to the south, a weak
southwesterly flow will develop into the Independence Day holiday
weekend and increase chances for thunderstorms.

Rip Currents:

Persistent and breezy northeasterly winds Today will yield a solid
moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches, with a potential
high risk on Wednesday as surf builds to 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     DAILY LOCALIZED HIGH DISPERSION SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE
- Georgia This Afternoon And Tuesday Afternoon

Easterly winds will continue through Wednesday, increasing during
the afternoon with the inland progression of the Atlantic sea
breeze. Wind gusts up to 25 mph will be possible, especially near
the coast and extending inland toward the St. Johns River basin. A
drier airmass will support mostly dry conditions Wednesday across
areas north of Interstate 10, including the Okefenokee National
Wildlife Refuge and the Osceola National Forest, while the greatest
afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage will be confined to
north-central Florida, including the Ocala National Forest. Minimum
relative humidity values will remain above critical fire weather
thresholds, although localized high daytime dispersion is expected
each afternoon north of Interstate 10.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not anticipated
through the period. Any stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and strong, erratic
wind gusts, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding continues along the Satilla River near Atkinson.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  72  94  70 /  30  10   0   0
SSI  88  79  89  78 /  10  10   0  10
JAX  91  75  91  75 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  90  77  90  77 /  10  20  50  20
GNV  94  74  93  72 /  70  10  30   0
OCF  94  74  92  73 /  80  20  40   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$