536
FXUS62 KTBW 300700
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
300 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees are
  expected through the week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each
  day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Strong upper level ridging will remain over the eastern U.S.
into Friday with some shortwave energy drifting west around the
base of the ridge. This will help push a weakening cool front into
north Florida today which then washes out over the region on
Wednesday. For today the flow will remain rather light with deep
moisture, precipitable water >2 inches, south of the boundary
overspreading the area. This combined with the sea breezes and
daytime heating will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms
starting late this morning and continuing into this evening.
Convection will drift toward southwest so most areas have a
decent chance of seeing some rainfall today. Tonight into
Wednesday the boundary will wash out over the region with an
easterly flow setting up across the peninsula. The deepest
moisture will setup from around the I-4 corridor south and with
the easterly flow the highest rain chances will be along the
coastal counties from around Tampa Bay southward. On Thursday, an
east to southeast flow sets up with the deep moisture still from
around the I-4 corridor south.

Late in the week into early next week the upper level ridging
will breakdown with the surface ridge shifting south and east.
This will shift the flow to a more south to southwest direction
across the region. Plenty of moisture will remain over the area so
expect to see more scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and
evening convection each day, but cannot rule out a morning shower
or thunderstorm near the coast from around Tampa Bay north.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with daytime highs
from the upper 80s along the coast to the mid 90s inland and
overnight lows in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of tonight, then some
areas of MVFR ceilings could develop with daytime heating during
the late morning hours. More MVFR/local IFR conditions will be
possible in numerous convection this afternoon and evening, then
VFR conditions should prevail later this evening into Wednesday
morning. Light winds will become west to northwest 5 to 10 knots
by midday near the coast then spread inland during the afternoon
before becoming northeast to east at around 5 knots during the
evening. The exception will be near showers and thunderstorms
where winds could be gusty and erratic.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Pleasant boating conditions are expected for most of the week
with winds generally less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less.
The main concern will be showers and thunderstorms that develop or
move over the waters generating locally rough seas and gusty
winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Abundant moisture will keep relative humidity values above critical
levels with sustained 20 foot winds less than 15 mph. Daily showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the week which could cause
gusty and erratic winds, otherwise there are no other significant
fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  70  40  50  20
FMY  96  77  94  76 /  60  40  80  40
GIF  94  75  93  75 /  80  30  50  10
SRQ  94  77  94  77 /  50  30  60  40
BKV  95  72  94  72 /  80  40  50  10
SPG  94  79  93  79 /  60  40  50  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Close