046
FXUS62 KJAX 292350
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
750 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Peak Heat Index Today 105-110 this Afternoon & Evening. Heat
Advisory Northeast Florida & Portions of Southeast Georgia

- Daily Mainly Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Today: Scattered to
Numerous Coverage Coast shifting Inland into Evening. Tue  Thu:
Mainly Inland Northeast Florida. Fri  Weekend: Increasing chances
including Southeast GA

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Northeast FL Beaches Today

- Minor River Flooding for Satilla River

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Heat Advisory for NE FL and eastern areas of SE GA through 7 PM

- Isolated strong storm potential north-central FL this evening

Weak prefrontal troughing that slid through the region overnight has
since stalled across central FL this afternoon. Northwesterly flow
behind that trough has slowed the Atlantic sea breeze development so
far this afternoon but with additional heating a late afternoon push
is expected.

The strong heating beneath robust upper ridge centered to the
northwest has bolstered temperatures into the low and mid 90s early
this afternoon with highs forecast to reach the mid and upper 90s in
a few hours. Heat index values have already risen into the 100s and
is expected to peak around 3-5 PM in the 104-110 range for most
areas, especially near the coast. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
through 7 PM this evening.

With regards to convection, the tug of war between the "ridge rider"
enhancement and the large upper ridge suppression - the ridge
appears to be winning. Upper air observations this morning indicated
fairly warm mid levels and several pockets of dry air above 850 mb,
which will act to mitigate t`storm coverage this afternoon. HiRes
convective models have caught up some and have indicated more
isolated to widely scattered convection through the afternoon with
the latest runs. If a strong enough updraft, the aforementioned dry
pockets aloft will support the potential for isolated strong to
marginally severe wet microbursts capable of gusts up to 60 mph.
North-central FL areas will have the highest threat for deeper,
stronger convection later this afternoon as the Gulf sea breeze
begins to interact with outflow.

For this evening there could be lingering convection across inland
NE FL as outflows interact through around 10 PM. The "backdoor" cool
front pushes in from the NE this evening. Some of the showers and
isolated storms could hang on along the front as it pushes into SE
GA late this evening. Some mid cloud cover will push southwestward
but overall skies will begin to clear and allow inland temperatures
to cool to the mid 70s while onshore flow will keep conditions
warmer in the upper 80s to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday & Wednesday...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy East Winds & Elevated Rip Current Risk
- Inland Strong Afternoon & Evening Storms

A transition to a stronger east coast sea breeze regime and drier
conditions across southeast GA with the position of the 1000-500 mb
ridge centered across TN/KY. This pattern will bring a chance of a a
few spotty morning showers and early afternoon thunderstorms along
the dominant east coast sea breeze as it shifts inland, with
convection blossoming into the afternoon and evening across inland
areas. Sea breeze and outflow boundary mergers will focus toward the
I-75 corridor and westward each afternoon and into the evening.

The highest rain chances focus across inland NE FL each day where
deeper moisture lingers. Tuesday, a frontal zone combined with sea
breeze forcing across inland northeast FL favors higher than climo
rain chances, especially for locations west of Highway 301 toward
the Interstate 75 corridor during the afternoon and evening. Below
average precipitable water and mid/upper level subsidence across
southeast GA invades Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening brining
below average rain chances. Wednesday, the drier airmass continues
to linger across locations generally near and north of the
Interstate 10 corridor with a continuation of mostly dry weather
across southeast GA with the higher daily shower and thunderstorm
rain chances southward across inland north-central FL in the
afternoon and evening. For all locales, Wednesday is trending
drier than Tuesday with more abundant mid and upper level dry
air in place.

With the pattern shift of onshore, easterly winds, high temperatures
will top out near 90 at the beaches and rise into the mid to upper
90s inland. With the drier air, dew pts mixing down into the low 70s
to evening mid/upper 60s across parts of southeast GA will bring
lower peak heat index values compared to recent days, generally in
the 100-105 degF range, below local Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday through Sunday...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Higher Rain Chances Return for Northeast FL
- Building Heat for Southeast GA

Thu & Fri...The mean layer 1000-500 mb ridge dominates north to
northeast of the region as a broad upper level low/trough approaches
Florida from the east. This pattern will bring a continued easterly
steering flow and a more dominant Atlantic/east coast sea breeze
regime. Moisture and thus rain chances will be higher across
northeast FL with the approaching upper level feature, and rainfall
may not follow a typical sea breeze regime given upper level forcing
and more abundant cloud cover with the passing upper level trough.
Warmer temperatures and drier weather continues across southeast GA
closer to the influence of the upper level ridge. Heat index values
Friday near local Heat Advisory criteria (108-112 degF) across parts
of NE FL.

Sat & Sun...The upper level trough feature drifts farther westward
while the upper ridge rebuilds and strengthens east to southeast of
the southeast coast. This will transition prevailing winds from SSE
to SSW into early next week, with deeper moisture expanding back
northward across southeast GA. Local rain chances increase across
all areas this weekend with active sea breezes brining afternoon and
evening storms. For Independence Day, at this time, looks like the
higher chances of thunderstorms will focus across northeast Florida
during the afternoon, and then interior northeast FL during the
evening with very weak storm motion...meaning that the rain and
lightning threat could linger for a longer period of time where
evening storms do form. A warming trend ensues into the weekend as
well with highs pushing back into the mid to upper 90s with daily
heat index values 105 deg, near but just shy of local heat advisory
criteria.

Tropical Outlook: There is a very low 10% chance of a low gaining
tropical characteristics along a front offshore of the southeast
Atlantic coast through mid-week. Later in the week, conditions
become more unfavorable for development. There are no significant
local impacts associated with this feature.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
East coast sea breeze front will continue the threat of storms at
VQQ and GNV through about 02Z, otherwise expect mainly VFR conds
with mid/high convective debris clouds and light and variable winds
through sunrise and only patchy MVFR fog possible at VQQ from 07-
11Z. Surge of E-NE winds and rainfall/storm chances begin in the 13-
15Z time frame along the Atlantic Coast terminals and push inland
with the sea breeze to GNV by 18Z and have added TEMPO and PROB30
groups for VQQ/GNV through the afternoon hours, while some clearing
with rainfall ending along the Atlantic Coast terminals in the 21-
22Z time frame. The E-NE winds will increase to 13-14 knots with
gusts to 20-23 knots at times through the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...


A backdoor front will push into the waters this evening, shifting
prevailing wind to northeasterly Tuesday and Wednesday. The onshore
flow will keep thunderstorm activity well inland through the middle
of the week. The front will settle south of the waters through
Saturday before it lifts back northward into the area as remnant
inverted trough Thursday resulting in an increase in rain and storm
chances. As surface high pressure builds to the south, a weak
southwesterly flow will develop into the Independence Day holiday
weekend and increase chances for thunderstorms.

Rip Currents:

Low-end Moderate Risk this afternoon with the development and inland
push of the sea breeze. Persistent and breezy northeasterly winds on
Tuesday should yield a solid moderate risk at all area beaches, with
a potential high risk on Wednesday as surf builds to 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Daily Localized High Dispersion North Of Interstate 10

Easterly winds prevail Tuesday and Wednesday, with increasing speeds
into the afternoon at the coast inland toward the St. Johns River
basin trailing the east coast sea breeze passage. Gusts near 25 mph
possible. Morning showers and isolated early afternoon coastal
storms Tuesday will shift inland toward the Highway 301 and
Interstate 75 corridor into the afternoon where isolated stronger
storms are possible through the early evening. Drier conditions will
prevail across southeast GA. Wednesday, mostly dry weather prevails
north of Interstate 10 including across the Okefenokee NWR and
Osceola NF. The higher thunderstorm chances will be across north-
central FL Wednesday afternoon and evening, including near the Ocala
NF. Minimum humidity will remain above critical values.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
during the next several days. Stronger storms will be capable of
producing strong and erratic wind gusts, along with frequent
lightning strikes and heavy downpours, especially on Tuesday
afternoon and evening across inland northeast Florida.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding continues along the Satilla River near Atkinson.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  95  71  94 /  30  50  10  10
SSI  80  88  79  88 /  30  20  10  10
JAX  77  91  75  90 /  30  40  20  20
SGJ  77  90  77  89 /  30  30  20  30
GNV  76  94  73  92 /  50  70  10  40
OCF  76  94  73  92 /  50  80  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$