838
FXUS62 KMFL 292323
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
723 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 713 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

 - Much drier today with a few showers possible over southwest
   areas this afternoon.

 - Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts again expected today with
   widespread triple-digit heat index values, even briefly touching
   110 degrees possible.

 - Rain chances will begin increasing once again on Tuesday ahead
   of an approaching front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Unusually dry conditions today across the area, as the 12 UTC
sounding this morning showed precipitable water (PWAT) levels in
the lowest 10th percentile at KMFL. Calendar does confirm it is
still June, so inland thunderstorms are still in the cards for
this afternoon over Mainland Monroe County. Usual pattern
continues overnight and early Tuesday, yet like this morning,
tomorrow morning should have only a few coastal showers.

Tuesday then continues the pattern, except for a frontal boundary
moving into Central Florida. This will produce a few more
thunderstorms north of us, yet once again be mainly in the inland
areas...but Tuesday afternoon will have more convection that what
we are seeing today. PWAT values return to more seasonable levels,
and that will unfortunately allow for additional thunderstorms for
much of the rest of the week.

Heat index values this afternoon remain in the 100-105 levels,
keeping things uncomfortable, despite the unseasonable PWAT levels
throughout the entire column.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Much wetter pattern begins Tuesday night through much of the week.
Cloud cover will increase as the synoptic pattern becomes much
more active, with higher daily rain chances align on the sea
breezes each day. With boundary interactions and weak upper flow,
slow moving storms in the late afternoon and evening will produce
localized flooding in spots.

This general pattern will continue through Independence Day, as
afternoon thunderstorm chances approach 60-80% each day in the
interior, while coastal chances will be in the 40-50% range.

Heat will also be a problem, despite the cloud cover and
thunderstorm chances. Heat index values will be at least very
quite close to local criteria of 105 and will be monitored
closely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR expected for the period. Light winds tonight with clear skies.
Winds increase out of the SE tomorrow for the east coast terminals
and WNW for KAPF. VCTS is in place for sites after 19-20Z but
should remain west of the east coast terminals. KAPF has the
highest chance to see nearby storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

High pressure remains in control of the region through the
first half of the week with light to moderate SSE winds over the
Atlantic waters, becoming SSW over the Gulf waters with afternoon
sea breezes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Tuesday,
and continue through the rest of the forecast period as a frontal
boundary reaches central Florida. Thunderstorms may produce locally
strong winds and rough seas. Seas are generally expected to remain
at 2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  94  79  92 /   0  20  20  80
West Kendall     76  95  76  93 /   0  30  20  90
Opa-Locka        79  95  79  93 /   0  30  20  90
Homestead        79  93  79  92 /   0  20  20  70
Fort Lauderdale  80  93  80  91 /   0  20  20  80
N Ft Lauderdale  79  93  79  91 /   0  20  20  80
Pembroke Pines   80  97  80  95 /   0  20  20  90
West Palm Beach  78  93  78  91 /   0  30  30  80
Boca Raton       79  92  79  90 /   0  20  20  80
Naples           78  93  77  92 /  20  40  30  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Redman