377
FXUS65 KPUB 300715
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
115 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions will return for today and
  Wed and have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for Wed to a Red
  Flag Warning.

- Severe thunderstorms possible far southeast plains today and
  Wed with large hail and damaging winds the primary risks.


- Isolated high based showers/thunderstorms/virga possible over
  portions of the mountains and I-25 corridor today which could
  cause gusty erratic outflows and exacerbate fire suppression
  efforts,but provide little to no beneficial rainfall

- 100 degree heat returns for Thursday and Friday across the
  plains with more critical fire weather conditions likely.
  Fire Weather Watch hoisted for Thursday for the mountains and
  I-25 corridor which may need to expand eastward depending on
  winds.

- Hope for rain increases late weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1255 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

After a volatile day for fire weather conditions on Monday, winds
decrease a bit for today but will still gust well into the Red
Flag Criteria for the mountains and adjacent plains this
afternoon and evening. Current Red Flag Warnings still look on
track even though winds will be more southeasterly across
portions of the plains and humidities slightly higher than the
day before, even across the mountains. Wind gusts in the 30 to
40 mph range will spread down from the higher peaks into the
lower elevations during the afternoon with a more southerly
component to the flow aloft as the next impulse over the Desert
Southwest lifts northeastward across western/northern CO during
the late afternoon and evening. There is some mid/high based
moisture with this (hence minimum humidities in the 10-15
percent range...instead of the single digits), so convection
will fire over the mountains in the afternoon and spread
eastward across the plains where it will interact with more
moisture and better CAPE to produce a few strong to severe
thunderstorms across the eastern counties of Kiowa, Bent,
Prowers and Baca counties. Large hail and damaging winds will be
possible. But to the west of the dry line, any isolated high
based convection will carry the risk of erratic and enhanced
gusty outflow winds which could exacerbate fire fighting
efforts. Have added some pops to account for this, though the
chances for any appreciable moisture where its needed looks low.


Winds will stay gusty into the evening as the impulse lifts
northward into WY in the evening.  Red Flag Warnings come down at 10
PM which still looks good.  Humidity recover will remain poor along
the lee of the southeast mountains tonight due to enhanced
westerly drainage winds, but some of the higher valleys should
cool off well enough to bring humidities up above 50 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Not much change in the overall pattern for Wednesday through Friday
with continued troughing out west, keeping relatively strong
southwest flow over CO through the period as impulses eject
northeastward through the flow. Have upgraded Fire Weather
Watches for Wednesday to Red Flag Warnings. Thursday looks like
yet another critical fire weather day for the mountains, and
adjacent I-25 corridor with conditions a little worse than
Wednesday as temperatures heat up again. Temperatures across the
southeast plains will crest around or over 100. Hoisted another
Fire Weather Watch for the mountains, valleys and I-25 corridor
for Thursday. It is possible this may need to be expanded
eastward another tier or two of counties, but winds look
strongest and humidity driest along and west of the lee side
surface low for now.

Friday looks fairly similar to Thursday with temperatures in the 100-
105 degree range across the southeast plains.  This may be another
critical fire weather day, though the building ridge to the south
may decrease the winds aloft a touch.  Humidity values will likely
be in the single digits, so even with marginal wind criteria, it
could still be a high impact day for fire spread.

Saturday looks similarly hot and dry, though winds aloft look
lighter as weak disturbance rides through the northern periphery of
the upper ridge.  We could see some isolated showers and
thunderstorms this day, but overall, any precipitation looks spotty
and light and favoring northern areas if any occurs.

We may finally get a break from the heat and wind starting Sunday as
ridging to the south builds in, spreading moisture northward over
the region and bringing increasing odds for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms with wetting rains. Increased cloud
cover and afternoon convection should drop temperatures back
into the 90s for the lower elevations instead of the low 100s,
with 80s for the valleys and 60s and 70s across the mountains.
-KT


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 953 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions are mostly expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through
24 hours.

KALS: Weaker winds overnight, with gusty SW winds picking up by 17Z
or so. Gusts in the afternoon will range 25-35 knots, with some mid-
level clouds  moving in.

KCOS: North winds through most of tonight after a weak boundary
pushed through. Gusty SE winds pick up by 18Z Tuesday, with gusts
around 35 knots in the afternoon. Mid-level clouds increase through
the end of the period.

KPUB: Expect variable winds and persistent smoke overnight across
the area. Winds turn southeast Tuesday morning, picking up in the
afternoon with gusts 25-30 knots. Mid-level clouds will move in and
last into Tuesday evening.


All three terminals will see passing chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into evening. Coverage will be
isolated to scattered, increasing a bit during the later half of the
afternoon. Mainly concerned with strong outflow winds, though rain
will be possible if any storms move over the terminals. Given the
spotty coverage, included as PROB30s at all three TAF sites for
now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1255 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Critical Fire Weather conditions are likely for parts of the
district Today through Friday with Red Flag Warnings issued for
Today and Wednesday, and another Fire Weather Watch posted for
Thursday. The strongest winds and lowest humidity values will occur
across the mountain areas.  As temperatures heat up for late week,
it is possible that the Fire Weather Watch for Thursday may need to
expand eastward across more of the southeast plains depending on the
strength of the winds.

There will be heightened concern for high based showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains and I-25 corridor today. These
could bring gusty erratic outflow winds up to 50 mph or better
which could exacerbate fire suppression efforts. While these
thunderstorms will be isolated in coverage, it is likely that
afternoon winds will become dominated by thunderstorm outflows.
Unfortunately, little if any moisture is expected from these
thunderstorms, except east of the dry line across Kiowa, Bent,
Prowers and Baca counties where storms could become severe.

Friday looks like another critical fire weather day, then winds may
become lighter into Saturday with thunderstorm chances increasing
for Sunday into early next week. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
evening for COZ220>233.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for
COZ220>230-233.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ220>230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
FIRE WEATHER...KT