505
FXUS66 KMFR 300539
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1039 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion.


&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z TAFs...The air mass is drying out east of the
Cascades, where mainly clear (VFR) conditions will predominate
through the TAF period. West of the Cascades, northerly and
onshore flow will continue to bring some clouds into Coos and
Douglas counties. These will bank up against the Umpqua Divide and
settle into the Coquille Valley, where some light drizzle is
possible during the overnight. The stratus could be deep enough to
spill over into the Rogue Basin Tuesday morning, with ceilings at or
around 3000 feet at Medford (near MVFR). Should they occur, the
ceilings shouldn`t last more than a few hours with VFR prevailing
again after 17z. For Roseburg and North Bend, MVFR ceilings
that form overnight should lift or break up in the 19-21z timeframe.
Expect widespread breezy to gusty N-NW winds (20-30 kt) for all TAF
sites Tuesday afternoon. -Spilde


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026/

UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

AVIATION...30/00Z TAFs...VFR levels persist across northern
California and southern Oregon. Northerly flow continues to push
clouds into Douglas and Coos counties, with high clouds and
scattered cumulus fields elsewhere. MVFR ceilings are possible along
the coast and into the Umpqua Valley overnight. There`s a very
slight chance of these ceilings reaching Medford or Grants Pass if
the clouds can spill over terrain. Any MVFR ceilings that develop
overnight look to dissipate through the morning, with widespread
breezy to gusty winds in the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026/

DISCUSSION...Northerly flow aloft on the backside of an
upper trough continues to push midlevel clouds into Coos and Douglas
County, with the Umpqua Divide limiting flow farther south. Areas of
terrain-generated cumulus are present to the east, with some upper
level tufts moving southward as well. While some clearing is
visible on satellite this afternoon, cloud cover looks to increase
over Coos and Douglas counties overnight. Mid-level clouds may
overflow into the Rogue Valley and bank up against the southern end
into Tuesday morning. However, these clouds offer no chance of
precipitation.

With the upper trough remaining in place, temperatures will remain
below seasonal norms to start the week but will warm steadily. By
Friday, temperatures look to be at average levels. A shortwave ridge
will nudge daytime highs about 5 degrees above normal for Saturday
and Sunday.

The tug-of-war between warmer daytime highs and clearing skies is
keeping frost/freeze concerns in the forecast east of the Cascades.
The coldest temperatures are forecast in Klamath Marsh, where sub-
freezing overnight lows continue through the week. Surrounding
communities, including Crescent and Chemult, may see periods of
frost/freeze conditions just before sunrise through the week.
Additional overnight cooling reaches towards southern Lake and
Klamath counties Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which may
support a Frost Advisory. As of this writing, confidence in reaching
those threshold temperatures as well as their duration (3 hours for
a  ) are not high enough to issue that product. Individuals with
especially sensitive plants or animals may want to consider
preventative action.

Small pockets of instability following the upper flow are expected
to bring breezy afternoon winds, especially on Tuesday and Thursday.
For these days, gusts at lower elevations look to be in the 10 to 20
mph range with gusts over elevated terrain could reach 20 to 30 mph.

Long-term guidance shows little expectation of change into early
July. Neither ECMWF nor GFS meteograms show any inland
precipitation, with unorganized chances for insignificant rainfall
at North Bend. Considering Medford, GFS outcomes keep daytime highs
at seasonal levels (About 85 degrees) while ECMWF members trend a
bit higher (About 90 degrees) beyond the holiday weekend. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, June 29, 2026...Strong north
winds will result in very steep seas and isolated Gales from Gold
Beach southward through Wednesday night. North of these areas,
incoming swell and north winds will maintain steep seas through
Wednesday night. While wind speeds do relax somewhat Tuesday morning
and Wednesday morning, the general trend is for these conditions to
last through Wednesday night. Thereafter, small craft conditions may
last through later parts of the week, mainly for the southern
waters.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$