933
FXUS66 KMFR 301004
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
304 AM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

*Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through Wednesday
 then trend warmer Thursday through Saturday.

*Breezy to gusty northwest winds are expected in the afternoons
 and evenings through Thursday.

*Dry weather is likely through the week. However, weak instability
 and moisture may bring some cumulus build ups to southeast Lake
 County this afternoon. Then, a weak disturbance may allow cumulus
 buildups on Thursday for areas east of the Cascades and across
 Northern California.

*Friday into Saturday, a weak high pressure ridge will bring
 warmer than normal temperatures and continued dry weather.
 Temperatures will peak on Saturday with highs around 5 to 8
 degrees above normal. These warm temperatures may persist into
 Sunday and Monday.

A broad upper trough is over the region. This will remain in place
through Thursday. Expect mild temperatures across the area today
and Wednesday with high temperatures 3 to 7 degrees below normal.
Today and Wednesday, morning lows are expected to drop into the
lower 30s across northern Klamath and northern Lake counties with
areas of frost. Further south in the Klamath Basin, Lakeview and
Alturas areas, temperatures may briefly dips into the mid 30s but
current guidance indicates temperatures around 36 to 38 degrees,
keeping frost concerns lower for these areas.

Winds today through Thursday will be breezy to gusty in the
afternoons and evenings, mainly out of the northwest. Gusts of 15
to 24 mph are expected.

Dry weather is likely through the week. The one except is, a
marine push has filled in clouds across Coos County and into the
Umpqua Basin and may bring some isolated light precipitation (10%
chance) this morning, especially over northwest slopes. Weak
instability and mid level moisture may allow cumulus buildups this
afternoon across southeast Lake County. Then, on Thursday,
another weak disturbance moves into the region and cumulus
buildups are possible for areas from the Cascades eastward and
over northern California. However, the National Blend of Models
indicates very low chances (less than 5%) for precipitation or
thunderstorms.

The upper trough shifts to the north and northeast Thursday night
and heights build over the region on Friday and Saturday. This
will allow temperatures to warm above normal with highs reaching
the upper 80s to mid 90s. Models and ensembles indicate a ridge
developing inland Sunday and Monday with a weak trough to the
northwest. This will likely bring continued above normal
temperatures and dry weather.



&&

30/06Z TAFs...The air mass is drying out east of the Cascades,
where mainly clear (VFR) conditions will predominate through the
TAF period. West of the Cascades, northerly and onshore flow will
continue to bring some clouds into Coos and Douglas counties.
These will bank up against the Umpqua Divide and settle into the
Coquille Valley, where some light drizzle is possible during the
overnight. The stratus could be deep enough to spill over into the
Rogue Basin Tuesday morning, with ceilings at or around 3000 feet
at Medford (near MVFR). Should they occur, the ceilings shouldn`t
last more than a few hours with VFR prevailing again after 17z.
For Roseburg and North Bend, MVFR ceilings that form overnight
should lift or break up in the 19-21z timeframe. Expect widespread
breezy to gusty N-NW winds (20-30 kt) for all TAF sites Tuesday
afternoon. -Spilde


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Tuesday, June 30, 2026...Strong
north winds will result in very steep seas and areas of gales from
Gold Beach southward through Wednesday night. North of these
areas, fresh swell and north winds will maintain steep seas
through Wednesday night. Small craft advisory level winds and
seas may continue to affect the waters south of Cape Blanco
Thursday and Friday. Then, models indicate north winds will
increase with steep seas possible across all the waters Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$