152
FXUS64 KLZK 300701
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
201 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Upper level high pressure centered to the east of the state this
  morning will slowly move to the ENE over the next few days.

- Heat advisories and an extreme heat watch remain in effect
  through Thursday with heat index values forecast to be over 105
  degrees.

- As the high moves away, the chances of mainly afternoon showers
  and thunderstorms will slowly increase starting as early as
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

An amplified upper pattern remains in place across the lower 48 this
morning with troughing extending from the northern plains to the
desert southwest. Conversely, upper ridding covers the eastern half
of the country with upper level high pressure centered along the
TN/KY border. Temperatures early this morning range from the mid 70s
to lower 80s under mainly clear skies.

Guidance remains consistent this morning in moving the upper ridge
to the ENE over the next few days and loosening its grip on the mid
south. As this occurs, the FA will be on the western periphery of
this feature with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms on the
increase starting as early as Wednesday. The ridge will continue
flatten somewhat late in the week and over the holiday weekend and
precipitation will become more widespread and not just restricted to
the afternoon hours. The best chances of precipitation will still be
tied directly to diurnal heating but overall amounts of rain are not
expected to be excessive.

No changes will be made to the heat related headlines this morning
as there is some question that heat advisory criteria will be met
after Thursday with increased cloud cover, the expected uptick in
afternoon convection and even a little Saharan dust thrown in for
good measure. That being said, It would not be surprising to see
any type of heat headline beyond what is in place if the uptick in
precipitation doesn`t pan out.

Regardless if criteria for any heat related headline is reached, its
going to be hot with highs in the 90s area wide. The lone exception
will be in the higher elevation areas where temperatures will be
just a touch cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period as upper
level high pressure dominates. Breezy SW/SRLY winds are expected
at the majority of the terminals during the daylight hours before
relaxing once again after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     96  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         96  75  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
Harrison AR       93  73  92  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    96  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  97  77  97  79 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     97  76  97  77 /   0   0  10  10
Mount Ida AR      93  75  94  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  94  74  93  76 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        98  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     97  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   97  77  97  79 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         97  76  97  77 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      97  77  97  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ007-008-016-017-025-
031-039-043>046-056-057-064-065-069-121-122-130-138-230-238.

Heat Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Thursday for
ARZ024-123-223.

Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for ARZ032>034-047.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for ARZ032>034-047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56