197
FXUS65 KFGZ 300526
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1026 PM MST Mon Jun 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Near critical to critical fire weather conditions
forecast to continue through the week, as dry and breezy
conditions persist. Afternoon temperatures will remain mostly
below normal for this time of year through Friday before
warming up over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...General troughing will continue along the west coast
through Friday, keeping a dry and breezy weather pattern over
northern Arizona. An embedded upper low over California today will
move across Arizona late tonight and Tuesday. This will cause
winds aloft (near 10K ft msl) to increase to 25-35 kts, with the
stronger winds shifting into eastern Arizona by mid morning
Tuesday through the afternoon. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph with
gusts 25-35 mph have developed this afternoon, with the stronger
winds in east central Arizona where a Red Flag Warning is in
effect until 7 PM MST. This area will also be targeted for higher
winds on Tuesday, and we have upgraded Tuesday`s Fire Weather
Watch to a Red Flag Warning. The wind will also be lined up to
bring smoke from the Pocket Fire north-northeastward into the
Flagstaff region over the next several days. Breezy winds will
persist Wednesday through Friday, but are currently forecast to
remain below critical fire weather thresholds. With the trough
nearby, afternoon temperatures have been 5-10 degrees below normal
the past couple of days, and this will persist through around
Thursday before a warm up begins. A ridge building in from the
east should also lead to less wind over the weekend into early
next week. As for moisture, nothing is showing up through at least
the 4th of July (Saturday). A very slow increase in precipitable
water is shown in the ensemble data starting early next week, with
a slight chance of a shower or storm around the White Mountains
by next Monday. No strong signals for deeper monsoon moisture are
showing up through at least day 10 in the ensemble data.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 30/06Z through Wednesday 01/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, except for smoke plumes due to wildfires. Localized
MVFR/IFR conditions possible in these plumes, including terminal
KFLG. Sfc winds light overnight, increasing again later Tuesday
morning, becoming S-SW10-20g25-35kts by Tuesday afternoon, light
again AFT sunset Tuesday night.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 01/06Z through Friday 03/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Smoke plumes due to wildfires may produce localized
MVFR/IFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20g25-30kts with
generally light winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry and breezy conditions
forecast to continue through much of the week. A Red Flag Warning
will go into effect at 10 AM MST Tuesday for portions of east
central Arizona.  Winds S-SW 15-25 mph, gusts 35-40 mph each
day. Minimum RH values generally between 5-15% each afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry and breezy conditions will persist,
keeping much of northern/central Arizona in near-critical fire
weather conditions. Winds S-SW 10-20 mph, gusts 25-30 mph each day.
Single digits minimum RH values forecast each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff