080
FXUS65 KFGZ 301059
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
359 AM MST Tue Jun 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure across the Western CONUS is
keeping breezy winds and dry conditions as the main story. Near-
critical to critical fire weather conditions forecast to persist
through the week. A pattern change over the weekend/early next
week could bring a few showers to the High Country, but confidence
is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A general troughing pattern remains over the West
Coast with an embedded trough currently centered over central
California. This secondary low pressure system will assist with
keeping pressure gradients tight across Arizona. Strongest winds
today will be Flagstaff eastward, where southwest winds 15-25 mph
are possible with gusts near 30 mph. Between the elevated winds
and minimum RH values below 15%, a Red Flag Warning will be in
effect this afternoon and evening for east-central Arizona.

The embedded trough will open up by Wednesday and allow pressure
gradients to weaken through the end of the week. As a result,
winds should drop below Red Flag Warning criteria, but still
remain out of the southwest around 10-15 mph. Dry conditions will
also stick around for the next several days, where minimum RH
values look to fall in the single digit range through at least the
end of the week, maybe even the first half of the weekend. Even if
Red Flag Warning criteria is not met for the second half of the
week, continue to obey all fire restrictions and be fire smart!

Over the weekend/early next week, high pressure will begin to
build up across the Southwest. This pattern change will initially
bring lighter winds and warmer conditions, but could also lead to
a slight increase in moisture. Confidence is still very low at
this time, but we could see a few showers/storms across portions
of the High Country by Monday/Tuesday of next week. Check back
later for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 30/12Z through Wednesday 01/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, but areas of FU/HZ could cause reduced visibilities
from local wildfires. Southerly winds 5-10 kts will continue
through 18Z, becoming S-SW at 10-20 kts afterwards. Wind gusts
25-30 kts likely throughout the afternoon, especially along and
east of a KPGA-KFLG-KPAN line. Light and variable winds return
after 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 01/12Z through Friday 03/12Z...VFR conditions
expected, but brief periods of reduced visibilities possible from
FU/HZ due to local wildfires. Look for SW winds 10-20 kts each
afternoon, becoming light and variable for the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry and breezy conditions
expected to continue. There is a Red Flag Warning for areas east of
Flagstaff for this afternoon/evening, due to southwest winds
forecast to be 10-25 mph gusting near 30 mph and minimum RH values
below 15%. Minimum RH values look to drop to 10% or less for
Wednesday, but lighter southwest winds are expected.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry and breezy conditions will
continue to be the main story. Expect widespread single digit
minimum RH values and southwest winds 10-20 mph for Thursday and
Friday, becoming light westerly winds for Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff