091
FXAK69 PAFG 292230
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 PM AKDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and sometimes unsettled conditions will continue as a series
of systems affect Alaska over the next several days. Well below
normal temperatures Tuesday will moderate back to seasonal levels
as the week continues with the exception of the Northwest Arctic
Coast where a taste of winter will be possible through midweek. An
Arctic front approaching from the Chukchi Sea will bring a mix of
rain and snow to parts of northwest Alaska through midweek.
Additionally, some scattered showers will occur elsewhere late in
the week and over the weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered showers will continue through Tuesday afternoon
  across the Interior, with best chances for rain and isolated
  thunder for the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country.

- Below normal temps generally in the 60`s will continue Tuesday
  with moderating temperatures back into the lower 70`s for the
  rest of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Gusty southwest winds will continue across the west coast, with
  speeds beginning to diminish by Tuesday evening.

- Scattered showers coming to an end this evening with additional
  rain chances returning Tuesday evening and Wednesday as another
  front approaches.

- Chilly temps in the 40`s/50`s near the coast Tuesday with lower
  60`s over the western Interior. Temps stay cool near the coast
  but begin to modify for locations further inland Wednesday and
  Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Snow showers will continue through this evening across highest
  elevations of the Brooks Range and across the Arctic Coast from
  Point Thomson east to Kaktovik, where a Winter Weather Advisory
  is in effect through 10 PM tonight for a rain/snow mix.

- Recent heavy rainfall has led to rises of rivers and streams
  throughout portions of the Brooks Range leading to minor
  flooding of Slate Creek and the Koyukuk River from Coldfoot
  north to Atigun Pass.

- An arctic cold front will reach the northwest Arctic coast
  during the day Tuesday with falling temps expected through the
  day. Some light mixed precipitation is likely near the coast as
  the front arrives. Additional rain/snow will be possible across
  the western Brooks Range and western North Slope Tuesday night
  into Wednesday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A general troughing pattern looks to dominate the region
throughout the short term period. This will keep somewhat
unsettled conditions in place as individual closed lows and
associated vort maxes pivot around the trough. Currently an upper
low is situated over the YK Delta and is allowing for southwest
flow into much of the Interior providing widespread cloud cover
and occasional showers along with cooler than normal temperatures.
In addition, a stalled frontal boundary north of the low remains
over the Brooks Range where steady rainfall continues, but should
be winding down later tonight as the upper support for this
feature continues to shift north into the eastern Beaufort Sea.
This feature is also producing a mix of winter type precipitation
along the eastern Arctic coast this afternoon where a Winter
Weather Advisory will remain in effect until later this evening.

The upper low over the YK Delta is progged to shift east to the
upper Panhandle by midweek. This will allow for a renewed easterly
push of moisture over the eastern Interior the next few days
along with moderating Interior temps. This will allow for
additional convective activity over the eastern Interior with
scattered light showers elsewhere.

Meanwhile another upper low over the high Arctic will begin to
push an Arctic front ashore along the Northwest Arctic coastline
tonight and early Tuesday. Some light precipitation will
accompany the front from Utqiagvik down towards Point Hope.
Temperatures may be cold enough for some mixed precipitation, but
overall QPF will be light, so will hold off on any winter
headlines for now. However, another wave of energy will quickly
drop south through the Chukchi Sea by Wednesday that will allow
for some additional moisture advection over northwest Alaska for
midweek. Depending on just where the previously mentioned Arctic
front winds up, there may be enough cold air in place behind the
front to allow for snowfall over portions of the western North
Slope as well as the northern Seward Peninsula late Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Broad upper level troughing remaining in place over Northern Alaska
this week will keep cloudier and cooler weather around to start to
the week, as a series of closed lows rotate around relative high
pressure in the Central Interior. Following a cold front that has
stalled in the Brooks Range, scattered showers have filled in across
the Interior and Western Alaska today, with breaks in the clouds
remaining conducive for isolated thunderstorm development across the
Upper Tanana, Fortymile, and Alaska Range this afternoon and again
Tuesday afternoon. Breezy southwesterly winds with gusts up to 30
mph are possible for the Northeastern Interior through this evening.
Winds will weaken through midweek, with lighter winds expected for a
majority of the Interior Tuesday into Wednesday. The exception to
this will be the Upper Tanana with northwest gusts of 20-30 mph
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A more organized easterly wave
will build into the Southeast Interior from the Yukon tonight into
Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting steadier rainfall for the Eastern
Alaska Range north through the Upper Tanana and Fortymile along the
Alcan Border. Rainfall amounts through Wednesday in this region are
expected to be around 0.25-0.75". Outside of this region, a series
of fronts building into Northwest Alaska will support several rounds
of mixed precipitation for the NW Arctic Coast along with breezy
winds for the Seward Peninsula and Kobuk/Koyukuk Valleys on Tuesday
with gusts to around 15-25 mph. Overall, with cooler temperatures
and higher RHs in place with generally showery conditions, fire
weather has moderated across our region with no significant warming
and drying trend expected for at least a week at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As much as 1-2" of rain has fallen across much of the Yukon Flats
and parts of the Fortymile over the last 48 hours. This
represents a 1 in 25 year precipitation event for some locations.
As rain showers slowly diminish overnight tonight, expect
continued rises and higher water, especially for the Fortymile and
Slate Creek near Coldfoot. A Flood Advisory has been issued
through Tuesday morning for Slate Creek at Coldfoot and the Middle
Fork of the Koyukuk River at Wiseman.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through Sunday.
Three upper low pressure systems linger over our region for the
upcoming weekend. One low in particular, located within the Bering
Sea, has the potential to produce northerly wind gusts along the
Bering Strait from Thursday to Friday. Model guidance suggests
that each closed low has the potential to produce light rainfall
throughout the state during the extended time frame, although
there is low confidence on where the precipitation will be
throughout this period. Guidance also supports higher confidence
in temperatures trending slightly below normal with continuing
longwave troughing and cloud cover over Alaska during this period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Laney/MacKay/Donner