978
FXUS64 KBMX 300418
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1118 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026

- The combination of high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
  with continued humid conditions will create heat indices over
  one hundred degrees, resulting in elevated heat risk through at
  least midweek. A Heat Advisory continues to remain in effect
  through 9 pm Wednesday.

- Chances for shower and thunderstorm activity will increase from
  late morning through the afternoon hours across the east and
  southeast counties initially and then moving southwest with
  time. Some of the storms may be capable of producing damaging
  wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026

Mid-level ridging will remain centered over the Tennessee Valley
Region through late Wednesday before migrating northeast,
becoming centered over the Mid-Atlantic States through Friday
followed by gradual weakening over the weekend. Surface high
pressure is presently centered across the Central Gulf Coast
Region while a stationary front extends from far Eastern Kentucky
southeast to near Savannah, Georgia. Expect the surface front to
lose definition through the day Tuesday while surface high
pressure strengthens across the Northeast and into the Mid-
Atlantic Region. As a result, the weakening "back-door cold
front" will be forced southwest into our area during the day
Tuesday while the environment becomes quite unstable in the lower
levels with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and high
humidity. Ample low-level instability beneath sufficient drier
air aloft will favor wet microburst activity that would result in
a damaging wind threat, though this convection will be
propagating southwest with time. The highest shower and storm
potential will initially be across our east-central and southeast
counties through midday, then expanding west and southwest with
time. Outside of the shower and thunderstorm activity, heat
indices will continue to exceed 100 degrees in most places. A
Heat Advisory will continue through Wednesday evening.

Convective activity is expected to migrate toward the southwest-
central portion of the Gulf Coast Region by the evening hours
with only some scattered clouds overnight across the southern
counties. It will remain humid and very warm overnight with lows
in the mid to upper 70s, prolonging heat risk effects as heat
index values will again exceed 100 degrees on Wednesday. With the
ridging migrating to our northeast and weakening, we will see
better opportunities for at least isolated shower and storm
chances across the area from mid week into the upcoming weekend
as high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s and overnight
lows will be in the low to mid 70s during this time frame.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026

VFR conditions will persist overnight and into Tuesday morning
with rain-free conditions despite some mid to high level clouds
moving westward from Georgia over the southern sites late
tonight. A few locations may experience temporary reductions in
visibility near sunrise, but confidence remains too low to
include at any location at this time. Expect cumulus development
to increase by late morning with increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms initially across the east and southeast
counties that will move southwest through the midday through
afternoon hours, with greatest potential to affect AUO and MGM.

Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data
issues with observations are resolved.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Chances for shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast across
all but the northwest portion of Central Alabama Tuesday with the
best chances across the southeast and southern portions of the
area with decreasing chances across the northern and central
counties by early evening. Additional chances for isolated shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected with better potential
across the northern and central counties Wednesday and again
Thursday. The combination of high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s with humidity values only dropping to near 50 percent
during the midday hours will create heat index values over one
hundred degrees through midweek. Fire weather concerns are low as
relative humidity minimums will remain well above critical values

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     76  97  77  95 /   0  20  10  30
Anniston    76  95  76  94 /   0  30  20  30
Birmingham  77  98  78  96 /   0  20  20  30
Tuscaloosa  77  97  78  96 /   0  20  20  30
Calera      77  98  77  96 /   0  30  20  30
Auburn      77  93  76  92 /   0  50  30  20
Montgomery  77  95  76  94 /   0  50  30  10
Troy        76  93  74  92 /   0  60  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following
counties: Bibb-Blount-Cherokee-Chilton-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-
Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-
Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Talladega-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05