057
FXUS64 KMOB 300559
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1259 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

  - Heat Advisory today for the entire area for Heat index values
    up to 110. Hot and humid conditions continue through the remainder
    of the week.

  - Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this
    afternoon and a strong or severe storm is possible during the
    afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A strong upper level ridge will strengthen slightly today as it
shifts north this afternoon. This will maintain dry and hot
conditions through most of the day. Highs in the mid and upper
90s combined with high humidity will create heat index values of
108-110 in many areas by late morning into the early afternoon. A
Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire area today.
Something to watch out for is if convection develops faster than
currently forecast some areas may not reach criteria. By mid to
late afternoon, an easterly flow will develop on the south side of
the upper ridge. A strong shortwave in this flow is expected to
generate a cluster of showers and storms to our east which will
move west across the area during the late afternoon and early
evening. Some enhanced mid level flow along with strong
destabilization will support some storm organization and the
potential of a few stronger storms. Damaging winds will be the
main threat along with frequent lightning. SPC has the entire area
in a marginal risk. Storms will dissipate quickly after sunset
due to loss of daytime heating.

For the remainder of the week, we remain generally under deep
layer easterly flow with the ridge centered just north of us. This
will continue to promote isolated to scattered afternoon showers
and thunderstorms each day while highs continue to top out in the
lower to middle 90s. Overnight lows stay warm throughout the
forecast period in the lower to middle 70s. A Low risk of rip
currents continues through this week. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a light
northerly flow developing on Tuesday. A round of thunderstorms
moving from east to west is likely (50-70%) Tuesday afternoon,
with greatest chances along and east of I-65. A few stronger
storms may briefly drop visibilities to IFR or lower and produce
wind gusts in excess of 40 knots. A more refined timing window for
the storms remains too uncertain to determine at this time. /98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A more diurnally driven daytime onshore night time offshore
is expected through the forecast. A passing upper system will bring
an increased risk of strong to severe storms to area waters Tuesday
through Wednesday.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      97  76  93  75 /  40  40  30  10
Pensacola   96  78  92  78 /  60  40  20   0
Destin      95  79  91  79 /  70  30  10   0
Evergreen   95  74  93  73 /  60  40  30  10
Waynesboro  97  76  94  74 /  20  20  40  10
Camden      93  75  91  74 /  30  40  20  10
Crestview   97  75  94  74 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$